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Assessment of Climate Impacts on Eutrophication in U.S. Coastal Environments
Assessment of Climate Impacts on Eutrophication in U.S. Coastal Environments
Abstract
This project is designed to study impacts related to climate variability and change through integration of satellite derived oceanographic monitoring, hydrologic (e.g. precipitation), and atmospheric model deposition data. In 2003,CCMA established a capability to produce scientific information related to long term impacts of climate variability on coastal processes, including eutrophication, in the southeastern US. CCMA developed an assessment (Pirhalla et al. in review) of precipitation influence on ocean color chlorophyll, investigating the linkages between rainfall, nutrient runoff, and spatio-temporal variability of satellite-derived chlorophyll estimates. Coupling information on climate, eutrophication and sediment pollution has relevance for coastal nutrient susceptibility monitoring and forecasting, physical/biological modeling, impact assessments of major storms and flood events, and watershed-based turbidity monitoring. Forecasting these climate influences on the coastal zone will be useful for evaluating anthropogenic impacts of nutrient over-enrichment, and for identifying whether trends in these aspects of water quality are significant. Results of this work will be used in combination with existing NOAA Weather Service medium- and long-range climate models at both regional and local scales as a means to identify trends and patterns of concern related to low dissolved oxygen conditions and turbidity maximum areas within NOAA protected areas such as National Estuarine Research Reserves and Sanctuaries.
Objectives
Developing assessment tools and forecasts of climate influence on eutrophication in coastal environments is important for describing baseline conditions, identifying spatial and temporal trends, and predicting changes over time. For this project we examine satellite-derived measures of oceanographic variability and climate to relate variability in chlorophyll and turbidity to climatic impacts including modeled precipitation and winds to events such as tropical storms or floods and to hemispheric or global climate patterns such as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation; develop modeled eutrophication forecasts and associated products of monthly chlorophyll and turbidity patterns based on National Weather Service current climate conditions and forecasts for U.S. coasts; and provide data and analyses that will improve application of satellite and gridded environmental products toward eutrophication and pollution monitoring and characterization in US estuaries. FY06 objectives will include 1) enhancement of the climate eutrophication model of precipitation influence on chlorophyll and turbidity for southeastern US continental shelf areas at 1km scale, 2) web distribution of derivative products including monthly chlorophyll/turbidity anomalies and event-driven measures of precipitation, and/or winds used in model development, and 3) web-based methods description of climate eutrophication model. Derivative products distributed throughout the web are designed to quantify spatial and temporal trends in the climate variables associated with nutrient enrichment and sediment pollution indicators, and to provide a baseline to assess impacts of anthropogenic and natural events, including extra-tropical storms, and hurricanes.
Time Frame
Ongoing.
For More Information
Doug.Pirhalla@noaa.gov
1305 East West Highway
SSMC-IV, N/SCI-1
Silver Spring, MD 20910
301-713-3028 x167